Ebola Outbreak Adds New Stress to Faltering DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a U.S.-facilitated peace agreement on June 27, 2025, in a ceremony held in the State Department's Treaty Room. The accord committed the parties to cease hostilities, respect territorial integrity, stand up a Regional Economic Integration Framework, and cease support of non-state armed groups. President Donald Trump praised the accord as "historic." He has since included the DRC-Rwanda conflict in a list of disputes he contends his administration has resolved. A rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak centered in eastern DRC now threatens to further strain already fragile implementation of the deal.

The DRC declared its 17th Ebola outbreak on May 15, 2026. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a species of Orthoebolavirus, and was confirmed in Ituri Province in northeastern DRC. The disease has spread internationally, with two confirmed cases reported in Kampala, Uganda, following travel from the DRC. The WHO Director-General, acting under Article 12 of the International Health Regulations (2005), determined on May 17 that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, though it does not meet the threshold of a pandemic emergency. No licensed vaccine or specific therapeutics exist for Bundibugyo virus, distinguishing this outbreak from Ebola-Zaire strains for which approved countermeasures are available. As of June 5, the outbreak continued to affect both countries, with the DRC Ministry of Health reporting 381 confirmed cases and 64 confirmed deaths.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, stated: "On DRC and Rwanda, they signed a peace agreement. Unfortunately, compliance has not been good. We've had to impose a few sanctions. On the Rwandan side, we are starting to see some compliance." Rubio added that the administration hoped to see Rwandan troop withdrawal "at some point in the middle part of next month," but acknowledged that the M23 armed group's status remained a separate and unresolved issue. The administration's enforcement mechanism has relied primarily on targeted sanctions. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch announced sanctions against the Rwandan Defense Forces and four senior RDF officials for violating terms of the Washington Accords. Days after the accord was signed, Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized the town of Uvira in South Kivu Province. The rebels later withdrew from Uvira, but continue to control two provincial capitals in eastern Congo.

The Ebola outbreak intersects with the peace process at multiple operational levels. Ongoing conflict in Ituri Province already restricts the movement of surveillance teams, limits deployment of rapid response units, and hinders the secure transport of laboratory samples. Conflict and displacement are accelerating the risk of regional spread, while severe global aid reductions have weakened frontline health systems and outbreak preparedness. Former government officials interviewed by POLITICO assessed the convergence as corrosive to both tracks. Cameron Hudson, who served as Director for African Affairs on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, told POLITICO the deal was already under serious stress before the outbreak and warned that an Ebola response operation would give both sides additional pretexts to defer the harder obligations of implementation and monitoring, distract senior officials, and absorb security resources earmarked for peace enforcement [POLITICO].

The U.S. response capacity itself is in dispute. On May 18, CDC and the Department of Homeland Security announced enhanced travel screening, entry restrictions, and public health measures to prevent Ebola from entering the United States. The State Department has cited a U.S. financial contribution exceeding $200 million for supplies, border screening, and treatment, and has described the United States as the largest single donor to the response [POLITICO]. However, Dr. Jean Kaseya, Director-General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters that pledged contributions, including from the United States, were later revised downward, and that local authorities in Uganda and DRC had received only a fraction of what was promised [POLITICO]. Jeremy Konyndyk, who directed the U.S. response to the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak under President Barack Obama, characterized the current effort as "very underpowered," attributing the gap to the dismantling of USAID, staff reductions at the CDC, and the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization [POLITICO]. During the 2014 outbreak, the CDC deployed approximately 100 experts to the region, and the Defense Department deployed 3,000 troops [POLITICO]. CDC is currently providing technical assistance with disease tracking, contact tracing, laboratory sample collection and testing, virus sequencing, and infection prevention and control efforts, working through its country offices and partners in DRC and Uganda.

The broader policy arc compounds the risk. The Washington Accords require Rwanda to withdraw its troops from the DRC and commit both countries to a regional economic integration framework within 90 days, the creation of a joint security coordination mechanism within 30 days, and the "disengagement, disarmament, and conditional integration of non-state armed groups." Rwanda has refused to withdraw its troops until the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda has been neutralized, while the DRC insists both steps must occur simultaneously, and the ceasefire with M23 has been violated by both sides. The Ebola outbreak is now occurring in that same complex epidemiological and humanitarian context. A health crisis demanding the sustained attention and physical resources of both governments, combined with an international donor community that has yet to fully deliver on pledged funding, creates compounding pressure on an accord that, by Washington's own account, has not yet achieved meaningful compliance.