U.S. Threatens Consequences for NATO Allies Lagging on 5% Spending Target

The United States is preparing potential punitive measures against NATO allies that cannot demonstrate a credible path to meeting the alliance's 5% GDP defense spending target by 2035, according to U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker. Whitaker disclosed the administration's posture in a call with reporters on July 2, declining to specify what measures are under consideration. The warning arrives less than a week before alliance heads of state convene in Ankara, Turkey, for the July 7-8 NATO summit, where spending compliance and European defense industrial policy are expected to dominate the agenda [POLITICO]^[1][2].

The 5% benchmark at issue was formally adopted by 31 of NATO's 32 member states at the June 2025 Hague Summit. The target divides into at least 3.5% of GDP for core military spending, with the remaining 1.5% allocated to security-related "critical infrastructure" including civil preparedness and the defense industrial base. Allies are required to submit annual plans "showing a credible, incremental path to reach this goal," following pushback from some member states, particularly Spain. All 32 NATO members except Spain committed to the 5% target, with Spain receiving an exemption. The 2025 Hague commitment more than doubled the previous 2% benchmark set at the 2014 Wales Summit, and a collective review of progress is scheduled for 2029, with the final deadline set at 2035.

Despite the headline commitment, compliance is uneven at the outset. Some member states have yet to meet the 2014 target to spend 2% of GDP on defense. In 2025, European allies and Canada increased their core defense investment by $139 billion in nominal terms, and some allies are projected to reach the 5% target in 2026, ahead of schedule. The gap between leading and lagging members is the fault line Whitaker's warning addresses. Whitaker also indicated that the administration views compliance as a two-sided ledger: allies who increase their defense spending should receive political and economic benefits, including greater access to senior U.S. officials and priority in acquiring U.S. weapons systems.

The administration's posture on European defense industrial policy adds a secondary tension. According to POLITICO, Whitaker stated that while Washington supports European efforts to increase defense production, the U.S. does not support protectionist provisions in European defense initiatives that would exclude non-European allies from procurement. Excluding non-EU member industries from EU defense initiatives would undermine NATO interoperability, slow Europe's rearming, raise costs, and stifle innovation, according to Whitaker's earlier public remarks. That friction tracks a long-standing U.S. concern that EU defense industrial frameworks, including elements of the European Defence Fund and the ReArm Europe initiative, favor European-only supply chains at the expense of allied interoperability [POLITICO].

Whitaker has pressed the spending issue since he assumed the post. He was confirmed by the Senate on April 1, 2025, by a vote of 52-45. In his confirmation testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Whitaker stated he would work to ensure all NATO members meet a minimum defense spending level of 5%, calling it "a necessity for the survival of the Alliance." The administration has previously compiled internal assessments of which allies are meeting or missing spending commitments, according to POLITICO, though the precise criteria for any punitive action and which specific allies fall short remain undisclosed. The president has on prior occasions threatened to withdraw from NATO entirely over burden-sharing disputes, a threat that injected legal uncertainty into the alliance given that U.S. membership is codified in the North Atlantic Treaty, which Congress ratified in 1949 [POLITICO].

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced in August 2025 that the 2026 summit will be held July 7-8 at the Bestepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, Turkey. The summit's stated purpose is to review progress made since the 2025 Hague Summit and set out a roadmap for delivering on NATO's key objectives. Alliance leaders arrive against a backdrop of transatlantic tensions over defense spending, U.S. force posture in Europe, and disagreements on Ukraine, and the alliance hopes to use recent convergence trends to reset U.S.-NATO relations. Whitaker told reporters the administration expects to reach agreement at the Ankara summit on the European industrial access question, though he offered no details on what a resolution would look like [POLITICO].