Ukraine and Moldova Open First EU Accession Cluster After Hungary Drops Veto

All 27 EU member states formally agreed on June 15 to open the first accession negotiation cluster with Ukraine and Moldova, activating a process that had been frozen for more than a year by a single member state's veto. The accession cluster was officially opened in Luxembourg during an Intergovernmental Conference on June 15, marking a milestone on Ukraine's more than decade-long path toward EU membership. The conference opened the first of six thematic negotiating clusters, and EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told press she expects the remaining five clusters to open in July.

The legal framework governing the process is Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, which requires every existing member state's unanimous consent at each material stage. Once all chapters are closed, an accession treaty is prepared and must be approved unanimously by the Council of the EU and receive the consent of the European Parliament. The treaty is then signed by each EU member state and the accession country, and must be ratified by each of them in accordance with their respective constitutional procedures before it enters into force. The current cluster covers the fundamentals of accession: rule of law, democratic institutions, public administration, judicial reform, and protection of fundamental rights, in line with the European Commission's enlargement policy framework.

The opening of Cluster 1 followed a discrete bilateral negotiation between Kyiv and Budapest that resolved Hungary's long-standing objection to Ukraine's candidacy. While Ukraine formally launched talks with the EU in June 2024, not one of the six negotiation clusters had begun, primarily because former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposed Kyiv's accession and wielded his veto power to hold up aid for Ukraine, sanctions against Moscow, and advancement toward EU membership. Orban's defeat by Peter Magyar in Hungary's 2026 parliamentary elections cleared the way for new negotiations. On June 3, Magyar announced a deal with Kyiv on minority rights, describing it as "a comprehensive agreement with Ukraine on the expansion of the linguistic, educational, cultural and political rights of the 100,000-strong Hungarian minority." Magyar had previously conditioned Hungary's support on Ukraine strengthening the rights of its 70,000-to-80,000-strong Hungarian minority in western Zakarpattia Oblast. Ukraine's government had approved an "Action Plan for the Protection of the Rights of Persons Belonging to National Minorities" in May 2025 as part of the EU accession process.

Magyar, a lawyer who has served as prime minister since May 2026 and leads the Tisza Party, represents a sharp break from his predecessor's posture on EU institutional matters. He lifted the blockage but placed explicit conditions on Budapest's continued cooperation. Magyar announced the deal while simultaneously stressing that Hungary does not support accelerating the accession process, and stated that if Ukraine closes all 33 negotiation chapters within the next 10 to 15 years, Hungary will hold a legally binding referendum on membership. Magyar also warned that "if Ukraine fails to honor its obligations in respect of rights of the Hungarian minority, then it will not be able to advance in the admission process." That condition preserves a functional veto at each subsequent stage: under Article 49, any member state may block progress at any cluster opening, at the accession treaty vote, or at ratification.

The structural constraints on timeline are substantial and independent of Hungary's position. On average, it has taken about nine years for each of the 21 current EU members that underwent the accession process to join the bloc; the other six were original founding members. The timeline varies depending on national and global politics and on how much a country must reform its laws to meet EU standards; for nine countries the complete accession process took 10 or more years, with Cyprus and Malta each taking nearly 14 years. Ukraine's situation introduces further variables: the country is conducting reforms while under active military attack, and full legislative alignment with the EU acquis across all 33 chapters, including the free movement of goods and people, will present practical difficulties for a state still at war. Because the two dossiers have been linked from the outset through a so-called "package approach," Hungary's earlier blockage of Ukraine's negotiations also stalled Moldova's accession process.

The June 15 opening represents the first substantive movement in the negotiating process since both countries received candidate status. The European Council endorsed the Commission's recommendation to grant Kyiv and Chisinau candidate status on June 23, 2022, and EU leaders gave the green light to open accession negotiations at their December 14, 2023 summit. Enlargement Commissioner Kos has already signaled the next step: she told press at the Luxembourg opening that she expects all five remaining clusters to open in July, and that the Commission will also prepare an accession treaty for Ukraine, in parallel with work currently underway for Montenegro. Whether that schedule holds will depend on whether all 27 member states continue to concur, and on Ukraine's pace of domestic legislative reform, a condition that Magyar has indicated Budapest will monitor closely.